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Argument: An early US withdrawal from Iraq would be generally disastrous

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*'''John McCain. March, 2008.''' - "One of the debates of this election will be if the American people want a candidate who wants to get out [of Iraq] as quickly as possible. If we do that then al-Qa'eda wins, we have chaos and genocide throughout the region and they will follow us home. That's been my position - forever."[http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/13/wmccain113.xml] *'''John McCain. March, 2008.''' - "One of the debates of this election will be if the American people want a candidate who wants to get out [of Iraq] as quickly as possible. If we do that then al-Qa'eda wins, we have chaos and genocide throughout the region and they will follow us home. That's been my position - forever."[http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/13/wmccain113.xml]
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 +*[http://johnibii.wordpress.com/2007/09/16/disaster-of-hasty-withdrawal/ Henry Kissinger. "Disaster of Hasty Withdrawal". The Washington Post. September 16, 2007] - "Should America repeat a self-inflicted wound? An abrupt withdrawal from Iraq will not end the war; it will only redirect it. Within Iraq, the sectarian conflict could assume genocidal proportions; terrorist base areas could re-emerge.
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 +:Under the impact of American abdication, Lebanon may slip into domination by Iran's ally, Hezbollah; a Syria-Israel war or an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities may become more likely as Israel attempts to break the radical encirclement; Turkey and Iran will probably squeeze Kurdish autonomy; and the Taleban in Afghanistan will gain new impetus. Countries where the radical threat is as yet incipient, as India, will face a mounting domestic challenge. Pakistan, in the process of a delicate political transformation, will encounter more radical pressures and may even turn into a radical challenge itself.
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 +:That is what is meant by “precipitate'' withdrawal — a withdrawal in which the US loses the ability to shape events, either within Iraq, on the anti-jihadist battlefield or in the world at large."
*[http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20050901faessay84508/andrew-f-krepinevich-jr/how-to-win-in-iraq.html Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. "How to Win in Iraq". Foreign Affairs. September/October, 2005] - "The administration's critics, meanwhile, have offered as their alternative 'strategy' an accelerated timetable for withdrawal. They see Iraq as another Vietnam and advocate a similar solution: pulling out U.S. troops and hoping for the best. The costs of such premature disengagement would likely be calamitous. The insurgency could morph into a bloody civil war, with the significant involvement of both Syria and Iran. Radical Islamists would see the U.S. departure as a victory, and the ensuing chaos would drive up oil prices." *[http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20050901faessay84508/andrew-f-krepinevich-jr/how-to-win-in-iraq.html Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. "How to Win in Iraq". Foreign Affairs. September/October, 2005] - "The administration's critics, meanwhile, have offered as their alternative 'strategy' an accelerated timetable for withdrawal. They see Iraq as another Vietnam and advocate a similar solution: pulling out U.S. troops and hoping for the best. The costs of such premature disengagement would likely be calamitous. The insurgency could morph into a bloody civil war, with the significant involvement of both Syria and Iran. Radical Islamists would see the U.S. departure as a victory, and the ensuing chaos would drive up oil prices."

Revision as of 17:13, 17 April 2008

Parent debate

Supporting quotes

  • An April 2008 report by the Institute of Peace concluded that an early withdrawal would result in, "massive chaos and even genocide."[1]
  • John McCain. March, 2008. - "One of the debates of this election will be if the American people want a candidate who wants to get out [of Iraq] as quickly as possible. If we do that then al-Qa'eda wins, we have chaos and genocide throughout the region and they will follow us home. That's been my position - forever."[2]
Under the impact of American abdication, Lebanon may slip into domination by Iran's ally, Hezbollah; a Syria-Israel war or an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities may become more likely as Israel attempts to break the radical encirclement; Turkey and Iran will probably squeeze Kurdish autonomy; and the Taleban in Afghanistan will gain new impetus. Countries where the radical threat is as yet incipient, as India, will face a mounting domestic challenge. Pakistan, in the process of a delicate political transformation, will encounter more radical pressures and may even turn into a radical challenge itself.
That is what is meant by “precipitate withdrawal — a withdrawal in which the US loses the ability to shape events, either within Iraq, on the anti-jihadist battlefield or in the world at large."
  • Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. "How to Win in Iraq". Foreign Affairs. September/October, 2005 - "The administration's critics, meanwhile, have offered as their alternative 'strategy' an accelerated timetable for withdrawal. They see Iraq as another Vietnam and advocate a similar solution: pulling out U.S. troops and hoping for the best. The costs of such premature disengagement would likely be calamitous. The insurgency could morph into a bloody civil war, with the significant involvement of both Syria and Iran. Radical Islamists would see the U.S. departure as a victory, and the ensuing chaos would drive up oil prices."
Sectarian violence could erupt on a scale never seen before in Iraq if coalition troops leave before Iraq's security forces are ready. Supporters of al Qaeda could develop an international hub of terror from which to threaten the West. And the likely civil war could draw countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran into a broader conflict."[...]

Supporting videos

"Christopher Hitchens - Consequences of Withdrawal from Iraq"[3]

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